Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020

Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ; Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN; Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL

doi:10.33988/auvfd.570790

Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi

Araştırma Makalesi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 67 Sayı: 2, 143 - 152, 03.03.2020

Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL

https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.570790

Cited By: 3

Öz

Kaynakça

1. Akaike HA (1974): A new look at the statistical model identification. 215-222. In: Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike, Springer, New York.
2. Akdi Y (2012): Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon). Gazi Kitabevi, 2. Baskı, Ankara.
3. Arıkan MS, Çevrimli MB, Mat B, et al (2018): Price forecast for farmed and captured trout using box-jenkins method and 2009-2017. 79-90. In: Academic Studies in Health Sciences. Gece Publishing, Ankara.
4. Batt PJ, Liu A (2012): Consumer behaviour towards honey products in Western Australia. BFJ, 114, 285-297.
5. Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, et al (2015): Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, USA.
6. Burucu V, Gülse Bal HS (2017): Türkiye’de arıcılığın mevcut durumu ve bal üretim öngörüsü. Tar Eko Der, 3, 28-37.
7. Cejvanovic F, Grgic Z, Maksimovic A, et al (2017): Assumptions of economic model for sustainable productions of beekeeping in the Bosnia and Hercegovina. JASTA, 5, 481-485, 2011.
8. Chatfield C, Yar M (1998): Holt‐Winters forecasting: some practical issues. The Statistician, 37, 129-140.
9. Çelik Ş (2015): Modelling of honey production by using time series in Turkey. SAUJS, 19, 377-382.
10. Çevrimli MB, Sakarya E (2018): Türkiye arıcılık sektöründe mevcut durum, sorunlar ve çözüm önerileri. Erciyes Üniv Vet Fak Derg, 15, 58-67.
11. Çevrimli MB, Sakarya E (2019): Economic analysis of beekeeping enterprises in Aegean Region, Turkey. Ankara Univ Vet Fak Derg, 66, 109-115.
12. FAOSTAT (2018): Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division. Beekeping statictics. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/*/E. (Accessed Sept 07, 2018).
13. FAOSTAT (2019): Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division. Crops and Livestock Statictics. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/*/E. (Accessed Aug 29, 2019)
14. Gujarati DN (2009): Temel Ekonometri. 6.Baskı, Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
15. IBM Corp. Released (2013): IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 22.0. Armonk, NY: IBM Corp.
16. Kaymaz Ö (2018): Forecasting of commercial egg production in Turkey with box-jenkins and winter’s exponential smoothing methods. Eurasian J Vet Sci, 34, 142-149.
17. Kaymaz Ö, Tekindal MA, Ateş C, et al (2018): Power analysis and sample size determination in log-rank (lakatos) test. Biostat Biometrics Open Acc J, 6, 1-4.
18. Koç B, Terin M, Ceylan M, et al (2010): General situation of beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey and ARIMA model with the help of long-term analysis. AJAVA, 5, 537-546.
19. Kos Skubic M, Erjavec K, Klopčič M (2018): Consumer preferences regarding national and EU quality labels for cheese, ham and honey: The case of Slovenia. BFJ, 120, 650-664.
20. Ma L (2009): International comparison of the export competitiveness of Chinese honey. Asian Agric Res, 1, 17-20.
21. Menozzi D, Mora C, Chryssochoidis G, et al (2010): Traceability, quality and food safety in consumer perception, ECAG, 12, 137-158.
22. Ören MN, Alemdar T, Parlakay O, et al (2011): Adana İlinde Arıcılık Faaliyetinin Ekonomik Analizi. Ankara: Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü (TEAE) Publication number:178.
23. Parlakay O, Yılmaz H, Yaşar B, et al (2018): The situation of beekeeping in Turkey and the future expectations by the trend analysis method. Bursa Uludağ Üniv Ziraat Fak Derg, 22, 17-24.
24. RTMD (2013): Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development, 10th Development Plan 2014-2018. Special report on livestock commission, Ankara, Turkey. Available at http://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/10_Hayvancilik.pdf. (Accessed June 07, 2019)
25. Saner G, Engindeniz S, Çukur F et al (2005): İzmir ve Muğla illerinde faaliyet gösteren arıcılık işletmelerinin teknik ve ekonomik yapısı ile sorunların üzerine bir araştırma. T.C. Tarım ve Köyişleri Bakanlığı Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü, Yayın No:126, ISBN: 975-407-169-1, Ankara.
26. Saner G, Adanacıoğlu H, Naseri Z (2018): Forecasting Honey Supply and Demand in Turkey. TJAE, 24, 43-51.
27. Schwert GW (1989): Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation. J Bus Econ Stat, 7, 147-160.
28. Semerci A (2017): Overall situation of beekeeping in Turkey and future prospects. MKUTBD, 22, 107-118.
29. SERKA (2012): Serhat Kalkınma Ajansı. Ardahan Kafkas Arı Irkı ve Arıcılık Çalıştayı Sektör Raporu; 58-59 Kars, Türkiye.
30. Šimpach O (2012): Statistical view of the current situation of beekeeping in the Czech Republic. In: The 6th International Days of Statistics and Economics, Sep 13-15, Czech Republic.
31. Tekin ME, Tekindal MA (2019): Optimum sample size in group comparisons in animal breeding researches with simulation study. JSTR, 5, 279-286.
32. Tekindal MA, Güllü Ö, Yazıcı AC, et al (2016): The modelling of time-series and the evaluation of forecasts for the future: the case of the number of persons per physician in Turkey between 1928 and 2010. Biomed Res, 27, 965-971.
33. Temuçin T, Temiz İ (2016): Türkiye dış ticaret ihracat hacminin projeksiyonu: holt-winters ve box, jenkins modellerinin bir kıyaslaması. SDÜ İİBF Dergisi, 21, 937-960.
34. Terin M, Yıldırım İ, Aksoy A, et al (2018): Competition power of Turkey’s honey export and comparison with Balkan Countries. Bulg J Agric Sci, 24, 17-22.
35. TURKSTAT (2019): Turkey Statistical Institute Livestock statistics database. Available at https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/hayvancili-kapp/hayvancilik.zul. (Accessed Jan 05, 2019).
36. TURKSTAT (2019): Turkey Statistical Institute. Agricultural price statistics database. Available at https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=110&locale=tr. (Accessed Feb 22, 2019).
37. Wei GX, Huang JK, Jun Y (2012): Honey safety standards and its impacts on China's honey export. JIA, 11, 684-693.
38. Wickramarachchi AR, Herath HMLK, Jayasinghe-Mudalige UK, et al (2017): An analysis of price behavior of major poultry products in Sri Lanka. JAS Sri Lanka, 12, 138-148.
39. Yenice S, Tekindal MA (2015): Forecasting the stock indexes of fragile five countries through box-jenkins methods. IJBSS, 6,180-191.

Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 67 Sayı: 2, 143 - 152, 03.03.2020

Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL

https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.570790

Cited By: 3

Öz

The purpose of the present study is to develop models for the time series data of honey prices in Turkey between 1998 and 2018 using Box-Jenkins and Winter's Exponential Smoothing methods and to evaluate the TRY- and US$-denominated forecasts made using such models for 2019-2020. The method employed to analyse the time series data is the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The most suitable model to forecast the honey prices was found to be SARIMA (2,1,2)(1,0,1) for TRY-denominated prices and SARIMA (0,1,3)(0,0,0) for US$-denominated prices. It was forecast that the average price of 1 kg of honey would be 49.08 TRY/6.15 US$ at the end of 2020. Since the study will provide beekeepers with information on future prices, it will help them better plan their production activities. The price forecasts in this study will be useful for producers and those involved in sale of honey with respect to prediction of how the honey prices will change in the years to come.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forecasting, honey, time series, Turkey

Kaynakça

1. Akaike HA (1974): A new look at the statistical model identification. 215-222. In: Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike, Springer, New York.
2. Akdi Y (2012): Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon). Gazi Kitabevi, 2. Baskı, Ankara.
3. Arıkan MS, Çevrimli MB, Mat B, et al (2018): Price forecast for farmed and captured trout using box-jenkins method and 2009-2017. 79-90. In: Academic Studies in Health Sciences. Gece Publishing, Ankara.
4. Batt PJ, Liu A (2012): Consumer behaviour towards honey products in Western Australia. BFJ, 114, 285-297.
5. Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, et al (2015): Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, USA.
6. Burucu V, Gülse Bal HS (2017): Türkiye’de arıcılığın mevcut durumu ve bal üretim öngörüsü. Tar Eko Der, 3, 28-37.
7. Cejvanovic F, Grgic Z, Maksimovic A, et al (2017): Assumptions of economic model for sustainable productions of beekeeping in the Bosnia and Hercegovina. JASTA, 5, 481-485, 2011.
8. Chatfield C, Yar M (1998): Holt‐Winters forecasting: some practical issues. The Statistician, 37, 129-140.
9. Çelik Ş (2015): Modelling of honey production by using time series in Turkey. SAUJS, 19, 377-382.
10. Çevrimli MB, Sakarya E (2018): Türkiye arıcılık sektöründe mevcut durum, sorunlar ve çözüm önerileri. Erciyes Üniv Vet Fak Derg, 15, 58-67.
11. Çevrimli MB, Sakarya E (2019): Economic analysis of beekeeping enterprises in Aegean Region, Turkey. Ankara Univ Vet Fak Derg, 66, 109-115.
12. FAOSTAT (2018): Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division. Beekeping statictics. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/*/E. (Accessed Sept 07, 2018).
13. FAOSTAT (2019): Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division. Crops and Livestock Statictics. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/*/E. (Accessed Aug 29, 2019)
14. Gujarati DN (2009): Temel Ekonometri. 6.Baskı, Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
15. IBM Corp. Released (2013): IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 22.0. Armonk, NY: IBM Corp.
16. Kaymaz Ö (2018): Forecasting of commercial egg production in Turkey with box-jenkins and winter’s exponential smoothing methods. Eurasian J Vet Sci, 34, 142-149.
17. Kaymaz Ö, Tekindal MA, Ateş C, et al (2018): Power analysis and sample size determination in log-rank (lakatos) test. Biostat Biometrics Open Acc J, 6, 1-4.
18. Koç B, Terin M, Ceylan M, et al (2010): General situation of beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey and ARIMA model with the help of long-term analysis. AJAVA, 5, 537-546.
19. Kos Skubic M, Erjavec K, Klopčič M (2018): Consumer preferences regarding national and EU quality labels for cheese, ham and honey: The case of Slovenia. BFJ, 120, 650-664.
20. Ma L (2009): International comparison of the export competitiveness of Chinese honey. Asian Agric Res, 1, 17-20.
21. Menozzi D, Mora C, Chryssochoidis G, et al (2010): Traceability, quality and food safety in consumer perception, ECAG, 12, 137-158.
22. Ören MN, Alemdar T, Parlakay O, et al (2011): Adana İlinde Arıcılık Faaliyetinin Ekonomik Analizi. Ankara: Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü (TEAE) Publication number:178.
23. Parlakay O, Yılmaz H, Yaşar B, et al (2018): The situation of beekeeping in Turkey and the future expectations by the trend analysis method. Bursa Uludağ Üniv Ziraat Fak Derg, 22, 17-24.
24. RTMD (2013): Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development, 10th Development Plan 2014-2018. Special report on livestock commission, Ankara, Turkey. Available at http://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/10_Hayvancilik.pdf. (Accessed June 07, 2019)
25. Saner G, Engindeniz S, Çukur F et al (2005): İzmir ve Muğla illerinde faaliyet gösteren arıcılık işletmelerinin teknik ve ekonomik yapısı ile sorunların üzerine bir araştırma. T.C. Tarım ve Köyişleri Bakanlığı Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü, Yayın No:126, ISBN: 975-407-169-1, Ankara.
26. Saner G, Adanacıoğlu H, Naseri Z (2018): Forecasting Honey Supply and Demand in Turkey. TJAE, 24, 43-51.
27. Schwert GW (1989): Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation. J Bus Econ Stat, 7, 147-160.
28. Semerci A (2017): Overall situation of beekeeping in Turkey and future prospects. MKUTBD, 22, 107-118.
29. SERKA (2012): Serhat Kalkınma Ajansı. Ardahan Kafkas Arı Irkı ve Arıcılık Çalıştayı Sektör Raporu; 58-59 Kars, Türkiye.
30. Šimpach O (2012): Statistical view of the current situation of beekeeping in the Czech Republic. In: The 6th International Days of Statistics and Economics, Sep 13-15, Czech Republic.
31. Tekin ME, Tekindal MA (2019): Optimum sample size in group comparisons in animal breeding researches with simulation study. JSTR, 5, 279-286.
32. Tekindal MA, Güllü Ö, Yazıcı AC, et al (2016): The modelling of time-series and the evaluation of forecasts for the future: the case of the number of persons per physician in Turkey between 1928 and 2010. Biomed Res, 27, 965-971.
33. Temuçin T, Temiz İ (2016): Türkiye dış ticaret ihracat hacminin projeksiyonu: holt-winters ve box, jenkins modellerinin bir kıyaslaması. SDÜ İİBF Dergisi, 21, 937-960.
34. Terin M, Yıldırım İ, Aksoy A, et al (2018): Competition power of Turkey’s honey export and comparison with Balkan Countries. Bulg J Agric Sci, 24, 17-22.
35. TURKSTAT (2019): Turkey Statistical Institute Livestock statistics database. Available at https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/hayvancili-kapp/hayvancilik.zul. (Accessed Jan 05, 2019).
36. TURKSTAT (2019): Turkey Statistical Institute. Agricultural price statistics database. Available at https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=110&locale=tr. (Accessed Feb 22, 2019).
37. Wei GX, Huang JK, Jun Y (2012): Honey safety standards and its impacts on China's honey export. JIA, 11, 684-693.
38. Wickramarachchi AR, Herath HMLK, Jayasinghe-Mudalige UK, et al (2017): An analysis of price behavior of major poultry products in Sri Lanka. JAS Sri Lanka, 12, 138-148.
39. Yenice S, Tekindal MA (2015): Forecasting the stock indexes of fragile five countries through box-jenkins methods. IJBSS, 6,180-191.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	İngilizce
Konular	Veteriner Cerrahi
Bölüm	Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar	Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ Selçuk University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Livestock Economics and Management 0000-0001-5888-242X Türkiye Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN Fırat University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Animal Health Economics and Management 0000-0003-4862-1706 Türkiye Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL Selçuk University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Biostatistic 0000-0002-4060-7048 Türkiye
Yayımlanma Tarihi	3 Mart 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2020Cilt: 67 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA	ÇEVRİMLİ, M. B., ARIKAN, M. S., & TEKİNDAL, M. A. (2020). Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020. Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, 67(2), 143-152. https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.570790
MLA	ÇEVRİMLİ, Mustafa Bahadır vd. “Honey Price Estimation for the Future in Turkey; Example of 2019- 2020”. Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 67, sy. 2, 2020, ss. 143-52, doi:10.33988/auvfd.570790.
Chicago	ÇEVRİMLİ, Mustafa Bahadır, Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN, ve Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL. “Honey Price Estimation for the Future in Turkey; Example of 2019- 2020”. Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi 67, sy. 2 (Mart 2020): 143-52. https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.570790.
EndNote	ÇEVRİMLİ MB, ARIKAN MS, TEKİNDAL MA (01 Mart 2020) Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020. Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi 67 2 143–152.
ISNAD	ÇEVRİMLİ, Mustafa Bahadır vd. “Honey Price Estimation for the Future in Turkey; Example of 2019- 2020”. Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi 67/2 (Mart 2020), 143-152. https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.570790.
AMA	ÇEVRİMLİ MB, ARIKAN MS, TEKİNDAL MA. Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020. Ankara Univ Vet Fak Derg. Mart 2020;67(2):143-152. doi:10.33988/auvfd.570790
Vancouver	ÇEVRİMLİ MB, ARIKAN MS, TEKİNDAL MA. Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020. Ankara Univ Vet Fak Derg. 2020;67(2):143-52.
IEEE	M. B. ÇEVRİMLİ, M. S. ARIKAN, ve M. A. TEKİNDAL, “Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020”, Ankara Univ Vet Fak Derg, c. 67, sy. 2, ss. 143–152, 2020, doi: 10.33988/auvfd.570790.
JAMA	ÇEVRİMLİ MB, ARIKAN MS, TEKİNDAL MA. Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019- 2020. Ankara Univ Vet Fak Derg. 2020;67:143–152.

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